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北大经院工作坊第936场
Shift-Share Design Under Imperfect Substitution
国际经济学与实证产业组织工作坊
主讲人：
刘辰（新加坡国立大学助理教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）莫家伟
参与老师：
（北大经院）杨汝岱、田巍、刘政文、吴群锋
（北大新结构）王歆、徐铭梽
（北大国发院）薛思帆
时间：
2024年9月26日（周四）
10：00-11：30
地点：
北京大学经济学院305会议室
主讲人简介：
Liu Chen is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Economics at the National University of Singapore (NUS) since 2019. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, San Diego. His research focuses on spatial economics, international trade, and labor economics. With several working papers and publications in several economic journals, Liu's work often explores the causes and consequences of immigration and international trade.
摘要：
This paper proposes a new approach to estimate the local labor market effects of aggregate industry-level shocks when different skill groups are imperfect substitutes within-industry. In this context, regional employment responses are influenced not only by direct regional-level shock exposure but also indirectly by group-level exposure interacting with regional characteristics. I show that omitting this indirect channel could violate exclusion restriction even when shocks follow conditional mean independence, and characterize factors determining the sign and size of the bias. I propose a simple approach that remains valid under imperfect substitution and apply it to two empirical settings. My estimates show that (1) the effects of the China shock on employment are 70% of the previous estimates, and (2) the Great Recession shock has a persistent effect on employment, in line with micro-level evidence.
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北大经院工作坊第937场
An Impossible Unity? The Effects of International Monetary Policy on Chinese Treasury Yields （不可能的统一？国际货币政策对中国国债收益率的影响）
宏观经济学工作坊
主讲人：
李泽昊，香港中文大学（深圳）经管学院助理教授
主持老师：
（北大经院）韩晗
参与老师：
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
（北大经院）陈仪、李博、李伦
时间：
2024年9月26日（周四）
14:00-15:30
地点：
北京大学光华管理学院216教室
主讲人简介：
李泽昊于2020年获得威斯康辛麦迪逊大学经济学博士学位，并于同年加入香港中文大学（深圳）经管学院。他的研究主要集中于宏观经济学中的经济周期、金融摩擦、货币政策等方面。
摘要：
We investigate the cumulative effects of foreign monetary policy announcements on Chinese Treasury yields. Although the yields do not exhibit noticeable trends, their cumulative responses to foreign monetary policy announcements have persistent trends despite the low foreign participation rate in the Chinese Treasury bond market. U.S. and Japanese monetary policy announcements have persistently reduced Chinese long-term yields, while the ECB and U.K. monetary policy announcements have persistently reduced Chinese short-term yields. Moreover, Chinese long-term yields are almost pegged to those of the U.S. and the Eurozone during their monetary policy announcements. These phenomena are mainly attributable to the term premia.
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北大经院工作坊第938场
The “Grain for Green” Program in China: Balancing Ecological Protection and Food Security（中国退耕还林工程：平衡生态保护与粮食安全）
生态、环境与气候变化经济学工作坊
主讲人：
黄开兴（北京大学中国农业政策研究中心研究员）
季曦（北京大学经济学院长聘副教授）
宗晓雪（北京大学经济学院博士生）
时间：
2024年9月27日（周五）
10:00-12:00
地点：
北京大学经济学院305会议室
主讲人简介：
黄开兴，经济学博士，北京大学中国农业政策研究中心研究员，博士生导师。主要从事环境经济学、农业经济学和经济增长等领域的研究。近五年以通讯或第一作者身份在European Economic Review, Journal of Population Economics, JAERE，JEEM，AJAE等期刊发表论文20余篇。
季曦，北京大学经济学院长聘副教授、博士生导师。近年来主要从事生态经济学、环境经济学、能源转型和气候变化风险、生态文明制度的经济学分析、生物多样性经济学、绿色金融等方面的科研与教学工作。在国内外核心期刊上发表了学术论文50余篇。主持国家社科重大专项、国家自然科学基金面上项目、亚洲开发银行课题等十余项。担任Ecological Economics、Structural Change and Economic Dynamics、《经济地理》、《生态经济》等多本SSCI、CSSCI期刊副主编、编辑和编委。
宗晓雪，北京大学经济学院2023级人口、资源与环境经济学专业博士生，研究兴趣为环境经济学、发展经济学。
摘要：
Land use policy is crucial for food security and ecological protection. This study explores the impact of the "Grain for Green" program on grain production in China. By combining detailed county-level grain production data with rich remote-sensing data, we investigate the impact of converting sloping cropland to forest on grain productivity and output. By comparing counties with different shares of the program-targeted sloping cropland before and after the policy, we find that the program significantly increased grain productivity, which virtually offsets the negative effect of the program on total grain output. A key mechanism of this unexpected gain in productivity is that the policy incentivizes farmers to increase cropping intensity and production inputs, partly driven by the higher grain prices. Consistent with the aim of the program, we also find that the program reduced the damage of natural disasters to grain production. Our findings suggest the possibility of adopting land use policy to protect the ecology without compromising food security in a developing country.
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北大经院工作坊第939场
Feedback, Overconfidence and Job Search Behavior
行为和实验经济学工作坊
主讲人：
Lukas Hensel（北京大学光华管理学院助理教授）
主持老师：
（北大经院）陆方文
参与老师：
（北大经院）平新乔、秦雪征、庄晨、曹光宇
（北大光华）孟涓涓、高彧
（北大现代农学院）刘承芳、罗仁福、候玲玲、王悦
（北大教育学院）杨钋、丁延庆、马莉萍、朱琼
时间：
2024年9月27日（周五）
10:00-11:30
地点：
北京大学经济学院101会议室
主讲人简介：
Lukas Hensel is an Assistant Professor at the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, specializing in Development Economics, Labor Economics, and Political Economy. He holds a Ph.D. and M.Phil. in Economics from the University of Oxford, where he also served as a postdoctoral researcher and visiting researcher. Hensel has published extensively in leading journals, including The Economic Journal and The Review of Economics and Statistics and the American Political Science Review. His research mostly utilizes field experiments to explore labor market dynamics in developing countries and political behavior.
摘要：
We conduct a field experiment with job seekers in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to examine the heterogeneous effect of providing relative ability feedback on job search decisions and outcomes. On average, feedback leads individuals to update their beliefs but does not lead to changes in search behavior. However, initially underconfident individuals increase their search effort while initially overconfident individuals do not. Moreover, job seekers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for feedback further predicts treatment effects: only underconfident individuals with positive WTP see large and significant impacts on search effort and outcomes. The intervention is likely cost-effective, but job seekers' WTP is insufficient to cover its cost.
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北大经院工作坊第940场
数字消费创造美好生活——美团的实践与思考
数字经济工作坊
主讲人：
厉基巍（美团研究院副院长）
主持老师：
（北大经院）李博
时间：
2024年9月27日(周五)
10:00-11:30
地点：
北京大学经济学院107会议室
主讲人简介：
厉基巍，现任美团研究院副院长。清华大学建筑学院学士、城乡规划专业博士、城市经济专业博士后。先后就职于政府机构、城乡规划院、房地产企业。2019年进入美团研究院，长期从事生活服务、居民消费、灵活就业、数字经济、平台经济等相关领域的研究。
摘要：
近年来，我国生活服务消费迎来前所未有的快速发展，背后得益于数字化力量的大力助推。美团有幸参与其中，努力成为大家身边的美好生活小帮手。报告结合美团参与生活服务业数字化转型的实践，从历史进程中找寻生活服务消费必然大发展的内在动力，也视图去回答为何其在数字经济时代才得以大发展的原因，与大家共同探讨数字化对于每个人的生活和生活服务行业发展的意义。
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：初夏
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田