1.2025年5月ENSO更新显示热带太平洋处于中性状态，预计将持续至北半球夏季。
2.中性状态下的气候影响较为温和，无明显特征，但拉尼娜和厄尔尼诺现象仍可能导致极端天气。
3.目前，热带太平洋次表层水温接近长期平均值，大气环流强度也处于平均水平。
4.然而，由于气候模式的波动性，其他不太可预测的天气和气候模式在中性状态下可能占据主导地位。
5.未来几个月，随着冬季临近，ENSO预测置信度将逐步提升。
以上内容由腾讯混元大模型生成，仅供参考
The tropical Pacific is in ENSO-neutral conditions, and neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Neutral is also the most likely outcome for the fall and winter, although chances of La Niña are a close second. Today, as your trusty representative of the ENSO forecast team, I’ll cover current conditions in the tropical Pacific, what we mean by neutral, and what it means for seasonal climate prediction.
热带太平洋目前处于ENSO中性状态，预计中性状态将持续至北半球夏季。尽管拉尼娜发生的概率紧随其后，但秋季和冬季最可能的结果仍是中性。今天，作为ENSO预测团队值得信赖的代表，我将介绍热带太平洋的现状、中性的含义及其对季节气候预测的影响
The ENSO cauldron
ENSO大熔炉
First, let’s set the stage for why we care so much about El Niño and La Niña, the natural climate pattern collectively known as ENSO, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. El Niño and La Niña change global atmospheric circulation and the jet streams in known ways, with impacts on extreme rain, drought, snow, heatwaves, the range of daily temperature, tornado and hurricane seasons, global crop yields and disease outbreaks, and many others. El Niño and La Niña can be predicted many months in advance, so they provide an early picture of potential climate conditions and allow for preparation and planning.
首先，我们为何如此关注厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜？这一自然气候模式统称为ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）。厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜会以已知方式改变全球大气环流和急流，进而影响极端降雨、干旱、降雪、热浪、昼夜温差、龙卷风与飓风季、全球农作物产量及疾病爆发等诸多方面。厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜可提前数月预测，因此能为潜在气候状况提供早期预判，便于人们提前筹备规划。
If it were done when 'tis done
若事成便当速成
Our primary yardstick for ENSO is how the temperature of the ocean surface in the Niño-3.4 region of the central tropical Pacific compares to the long-term average. (Long-term is currently 1991–2020). Warmer than average by 0.5 °Celsius (0.9 °F) or more is El Niño, while cooler than average by 0.5 C or more is La Niña. Between them—within 0.5 °C of average—is ENSO-neutral territory.
ENSO的首要衡量标准，是热带太平洋中部尼诺3.4区域的海表温度与长期平均值（当前采用1991-2020年数据）的对比。高于平均值0.5摄氏度（0.9华氏度）即为厄尔尼诺，低于平均值0.5摄氏度则为拉尼娜。介于两者之间——与平均值相差不超过0.5摄氏度——则属于ENSO中性状态。
April 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The box indicates the location of the Niño-3.4 ENSO-monitoring region in the tropical Pacific. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is near average, while much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.
2025年4月海表温度与1985-1993年平均值的对比。方框标注了热带太平洋中用于ENSO监测的尼诺3.4区域位置。热带太平洋中东部海表温度接近平均值，而全球大部分海域仍高于平均水平。
According to our most reliable long-term sea surface temperature dataset (see footnote), the Niño-3.4 region was just 0.16 °C (0.3 °F) cooler than the long-term average in April. This is solidly in ENSO-neutral territory for the second month in a row.
根据我们最可靠的长期海温数据集（见注释），4月份尼诺3.4区域温度仅比长期平均值低0.16°C（0.3°F），这已是连续第二个月稳定处于ENSO中性状态范围内。
2-year history of sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for all La Nina events since 1950 (gray lines) and the recent (2024-25) event (purple line). The Niño-3.4 index has been near average for the past two months. Graph by Emily Becker based on monthly Niño-3.4 index data from CPC using ERSSTv5.
热带太平洋尼诺3.4区域海表温度的两年演变图，包含1950年以来所有拉尼娜事件（灰线）及近期（2024-25年）事件（紫线）。过去两个月尼诺3.4指数始终接近平均值。图表由Emily Becker根据CPC提供的ERSSTv5月尺度尼诺3.4指数数据制作。
We ENSO forecasters also monitor the temperature of the water under the surface of the tropical Pacific because it can reinforce or change temperatures at the surface. Currently, the subsurface is also very close to the long-term average.
我们ENSO预报员同时监测热带太平洋次表层水温——这些深层水温会强化或改变表层温度。当前次表层水温也十分接近长期平均值。
Turning to the atmospheric side of ENSO, some features are reminiscent of La Niña, but the brew this month has more ENSO-neutral flavors. We monitor many different aspects of the Walker circulation, the overturning atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific, to get a full picture of the strength of the circulation. During El Niño, the Walker circulation is weakened: weaker easterly (from the east) trade winds, a rainier central Pacific, and drier Indonesia. La Niña strengthens the circulation: stronger trade winds, a drier central Pacific, and a wetter Indonesia. When ENSO is neutral, winds, rainfall, and cloudiness are all near average.
转向ENSO的大气层表现：部分特征令人联想到拉尼娜，但本月的气候鸡尾酒更显中性风味。我们通过监测沃克环流（热带太平洋大气垂直环流）的诸多指标来全面评估环流强度：厄尔尼诺期间沃克环流减弱（信风减弱、中太平洋多雨、印尼干旱）；拉尼娜则增强环流（信风加强、中太平洋干旱、印尼多雨）；ENSO中性状态下，风场、降雨和云量均接近平均水平。
Two ways of looking at the atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific: the Equatorial Southern Oscillation (left) and cloudiness in the central Pacific (right). The colored lines show 2024–25, while the gray lines are every La Niña on record since 1979. Both measurements provide evidence that the Walker circulation strength is near to average, after several months of being stronger than average.
观测热带太平洋大气状况的两种方式：赤道南方涛动指数（左图）与中太平洋云量（右图）。彩色线条显示2024-25年数据，灰色线条为1979年以来所有拉尼娜事件记录。两项指标均显示，在持续数月的偏强状态后，当前沃克环流强度已回归平均水平。
Currently, we find that cloud cover over the central tropical Pacific is slightly reduced, easterly trade winds are modestly stronger than average near the Date Line, and the sea level pressure pattern across the Pacific (as measured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index) is slightly positive. All these indicators are consistent with a stronger Walker circulation, so the tropical Pacific atmosphere is maintaining a slight La Niña-ish lean. However, these are the closest to average we’ve seen in some time, and these monthly measures of the tropical atmosphere bounce around a lot more than the ocean ones.
当前监测显示：热带中太平洋云量略减，国际日期变更线附近东风信风稍强于平均水平，而横跨太平洋的海平面气压场（通过赤道南方涛动指数衡量）微幅正异常。这些指标均与偏强的沃克环流特征吻合，表明热带太平洋大气仍维持微弱拉尼娜倾向。不过，这些已是近期最接近平均值的状态——相较于海洋指标的稳定性，热带大气月尺度指标的波动性显著更大。
Nothing is but what is not
存在即虚无
A question we often get here at the ENSO Blog is “what are the impacts of neutral?” That’s a great question! After all, I listed a whole bunch of effects from El Niño and La Niña in the second paragraph of this very post. However, neutral doesn't have a signature pattern of weather effects. When El Niño or La Niña are in charge, they change atmospheric circulation and push the jet streams around in specific ways, leading to their typical impacts, and making the seasonal climate more predictable. In their absence—that is, neutral conditions—other, less predictable weather and climate patterns can be more important.
ENSO博客常被问及"中性状态有何影响？"——这确实是个好问题！毕竟本文第二段刚列举过厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜的诸多影响。但中性状态并无特定的天气影响模式：当厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜主导时，它们会以特定方式改变大气环流和急流路径，引发典型影响并提升季节气候可预测性；而当它们缺席（即中性状态）时，其他更难以预测的天气气候模式往往占据主导地位。
Examples of other climate patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, both of which are known to influence temperature and rain/snow. However, they are largely only predictable a few weeks in advance, so they don’t give us the same kind of long-range prediction edge as El Niño or La Niña.
其他气候模式如北大西洋涛动和麦登-朱利安涛动，均已知会影响气温与雨雪分布。但这些模式大多仅能提前数周预测，无法像厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜那样提供长期预测优势。
If you can look into the seeds of time and say which grain will grow and which will not.
若能窥见时光之种 辨明孰生孰灭
The current outlook for ENSO is very similar to last month’s, with a 74% chance of neutral through the summer. Neutral continues to be the most likely scenario through the winter, although La Niña is a close second. Odds of El Niño next winter are relatively small, at about 15%.
当前ENSO展望与上月基本一致：夏季前维持中性的概率达74%。尽管拉尼娜紧随其后，但直至冬季，中性仍是最可能出现的场景。今冬出现厄尔尼诺的几率相对较小，约15%。
Out of the three climate possibilities—La Niña, El Niño, and neutral—forecasts say that ENSO-neutral conditions (gray bars) are most likely for the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer. Looking out to the fall, neutral is still the most likely, but chances for either La Niña (blue bars) or El Niño (red bars) are increasing.
在拉尼娜、厄尔尼诺和中性这三种气候可能性中，预测显示北半球春夏两季最可能呈现ENSO中性状态（灰色柱）。展望秋季，中性虽仍占主导，但拉尼娜（蓝色柱）或厄尔尼诺（红色柱）的发生概率正在上升。
ENSO prediction in the spring is notoriously difficult, a time known as the “spring predictability barrier.” In the coming months, we’ll emerge from this period, and as we draw closer to the winter, our forecasts should gradually become more confident.
ENSO春季预测素以难度著称，这一时期被称为"春季可预测性屏障"。未来数月我们将跨越此阶段，随着冬季临近，预测置信度将逐步提升。
温馨提示：盘面影响因素较多（宏观、供需、情绪、产业套保套利、量化等），天气仅是众多因素中的一个，切勿据此买卖。期货市场风险较大，入市务必谨慎。